The
Post-American World
Fareed Zakaria.
Reviewed by Amitrajeet A. Batabyal
Since the conclusion of World War
II, the United States
has periodically been fearful about losing its exalted status on the
world
stage. The first time was in the 1950s when the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik
satellite. However, this fear turned out to have been unfounded. Next,
high oil
prices and slow growth within the United States in the 1970s led many experts to forecast
the
imminent rise of both Western
Europe and Saudi Arabia and the demise of the United States. Again, these forecasts turned out to be
largely
erroneous. Finally, events occurring in the 1980s led many pundits to
predict
that Japan and not the United States was going to be the economic and
technological
superpower of the future. Once again, the predicted future did not
coincide
with actual events.
Given this state of affairs, yet another clarion call
proclaiming the impending demise of the United States would normally be cause for a yawn but, on
this
occasion, things are a little different. In this book, the author
Fareed
Zakaria is not predicting the
downfall of the United States. Instead, he says clearly at the outset that
this “is
a book not about the decline of America but rather about the rise of everyone else”
(p. 1). More
specifically, Zakaria’s central thesis is this: As far as military and
political affairs are concerned, we live in a unipolar world in which
the United States is the sole superpower. However, in every
other
dimension, the distribution of power is slowly but surely moving away
from a
position of American dominance. Put differently, we are moving away
from an
American dominated world to what Zakaria calls a “post-American world.”
How
should the United States
conduct itself in this post-American world? Second, who are likely to
be the
key players in this new post-American world? These are the two key
questions
that are addressed by Zakaria in this book.
Let me take up the second question first. According to
Zakaria, although several nations will play a role in a post-American
world, China and India will almost certainly play very dominant
roles. To
help the reader grasp this basic and yet very important point, Zakaria
provides
detailed commentary on where each of these two countries has been in
the recent
past, where they are now, and where they are likely to be in the
future. With
regard to China, he says unequivocally that China will not surpass the United States as the world’s only superpower. Even so, it
is
salient to keep in mind that “on issue after issue, [China] has become the second-most important
country in the
world, adding a wholly new element to the international system” (p.
93). Therefore,
the United States
needs to comprehend that the goal for China is not conflict but the avoidance
of conflict. This discussion of China is eminently readable but there are a few
quixotic
aspects. On p. 98, without any corroborating evidence, Zakaria says
that India is set to overtake China in growth. Second, on p. 115, he makes
reference to a
market in which companies are trying to maximize profits by raising
prices. In
this regard, it is useful to note that in modern economics, even in
imperfectly
competitive settings, companies are typically assumed to control
quantity and
not price. Further, even if they did control prices, it is certainly
not
obvious that raising prices will have
a salutary impact on company profits.
Moving on to India, Zakaria says that a central paradox
confronts this
nation today. Specifically, although its society is open and ready to
take on
the world, “its state---its ruling class---is hesitant, cautious, and
suspicious of the changing realities around it” (p. 146). This has
interesting
implications for the future. On the one hand, India will have a larger role in international
affairs than
ever before and it will clearly dominate South Asia. On the other hand, notes Zakaria, “it may
not become the global power
that some hope for and others fear” (p. 165). Relative to the
discussion on China, it is easier to poke holes in Zakaria’s
analysis of India. For instance, on p. 143, he asserts that
the
principal reason for the emergence of the Manmohan Singh led secular
government
in India in 2004 was the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) “incitement
of hatred
and violence.” This is untrue. The
principal reason was the BJP’s orotund election campaign in which it
repeatedly
claimed that India was shining. The BJP’s claims
notwithstanding, the
fact of the matter is that India was shining for a relatively small minority
of the population.
To large segments of the rural population, India was either flickering or not shining at all.
With regard to the conduct of the United States in
this new era, Zakaria says that the outstanding task now “is to
construct a new
approach…that responds to a global system in which power is far more
diffuse
than ever before and in which everyone feels empowered” (p. 231). This
can be
done by following six tenets. These include selecting its priorities,
working
closely with allies, and agreeing on international rules of
interaction.
Perhaps most importantly, the United States must work to bring its legitimacy back to
the level
it enjoyed before the presidency of George W. Bush.
Let me conclude this review with the following five observations.
First, readers who are familiar with contemporary academic and popular
writings
on international affairs such as the writings of the Yale University historian Paul Kennedy and the New
York Times columnist Thomas Friedman will not find a whole lot here
that is new. Second, Zakaria exaggerates the virtues of the American
educational system as far as its ability to train students to think is
concerned. Third, on more than one occasion, the author’s referencing
is sloppy
and, in addition, this book has a fair number of typos in it. Fourth,
one can
certainly quibble with specific aspects of the analysis that is
undertaken in
this book. Finally, the above caveats notwithstanding, this is a very
readable
book that generally does a good job of predicting what a future
multipolar
world might look like. Therefore, I recommend this book to all those
who wish
to learn why, when confronted with new challenges, the United States
ought not
to “hunker down” but instead remain “a strikingly open and expansive
country”
(p. 258).